Business owners looking to track the opportunities of the future will have to look away from the traditional employment hubs of the city centres, according to a prominent demographer.
Speaking on the Smart Property Investment Show – the podcast of My Business’ sister publication SPI – commentator Bernard Salt suggested that the majority of growth will be found in “genuine satellite cities” rather than the major CBDs.
Using Sydney as an example, Mr Salt said: “There’s been growth around Chatswood as a business hub; around Ryde and Epping as a business hub; around Parramatta as a business hub. By 2050 there will be hubs, I think, particularly around Parramatta, and particular[ly] around, say Blacktown, with [the second airport at] Badgerys Creek.”
The growth opportunities for property prices – and with them, business services – is driven by Australia’s continued level of high immigration.
“Sydney now has 5 million people. By 2050, it will have 8 million people, or thereabouts,” he said.
“Sydney at 8 million people cannot continue to have people living on the edge, getting on the train in the morning, and commuting into the city centre.
“What will happen is that the city centre jobs will start to be replicated in stronger, suburban, regional centres. In the same way that … Los Angeles doesn’t really have a single CBD, the way in which Sydney does. There’s something in the CBD, but there’s also at Anaheim, also in Orange County, also at Irvine, also in the San Fernando Valley.”
According to Mr Salt, this trend is already emerging, with 2016 Census data reflecting the growth in jobs concentrated away from traditional employment centres in the city centres.
“[For example], how many jobs are within the Sydney CBD? It might be like 270,000 – I expect something like that. How many were there five years ago? 265,000. So it’s increased by 5,000, that’s okay. It hasn’t dropped, still growing,” he said.
“But if you go to somewhere like the north-west part of Sydney, it might have been 30,000 jobs five years ago, and there [are] 50,000 jobs now. That has value,” he said.
Hear more from Mr Salt about property demand, and the business opportunities associated with that demand, on the Smart Property Investment Show below:
Adam Zuchetti is the editor of My Business, and has steered the publication’s editorial direction since early 2016.